In a world where independence is often understood as the holy grail of state-building, Robert D. Kaplan invites us to an uncomfortable but much-needed review of that idea. The influential geopolitical thinker, journalist and writer - and laureate of the Dutch Independence Award 2025 - questions our Western assumptions about what it means to be an “independent” state. His message is clear and timely: independence is not an end point, but an ongoing process linked to geography, power and administrative stability.

This is evident, for instance, in the cautious cabinet response to Israel's attack on Iran. Indeed, international recognition of sovereignty is a key criterion for independence. And Iran is a country we have recognised and with which the Netherlands maintains diplomatic relations. So it is not fitting to applaud the attack on the Revolutionary Guards. 

But how the Netherlands would react if China, which we recognise, took on Taiwan, a trade friend not recognised by us, is still hard to predict.

The concept of independence as an ongoing process, we can also apply - besides individual countries - to the power blocs formed by states. Examples of sliding panels can be followed daily in the news. Whether they are called NATO or EU, OPEC or BRICS. Or more opportunistic collaborations like those between Russia and North Korea, Iran and Syria or “the West” and Taiwan. They were all entered into in order to operate more independently. But they do not lessen the interdependence of other blocs. It has now become clear to us, for instance, that NATO cannot simply decide to add a country to its sphere of influence. Because even non-members increasingly feel they have “something” to say about it - at the table or in the trench. With this, Ukraine's membership is now further away than ever. And we are also hearing less and less about joining the European Union.

The strength of Kaplan's approach is its realism. Instead of believing that a flag, an anthem and a place in the United Nations or Brussels automatically mean sovereignty, we need to look at the world as it really works. Still much foreign policy is driven by idealistic considerations, such as protection of democracy or abhorrence of what other players do and don't do.

But “independence” has long ceased to be steering your own course. States may be independent on paper, but their actual freedom of action is determined by their location, their resources and their ability to deliver stable governance. And thus also the extent to which they take into account (or conform to) the wishes of their ‘neighbours’.

What makes such realism especially relevant is that it is not cynical. Not intended to demolish ideals, but to make them more practical and thus more effective. With that, even now, Kaplan's work remains a call for mature politics: in which we recognise that power, interests and context matter. It is precisely by facing this, that we can build more stable, just societies. In this, independence is not the flag on the government building, but a true form of self-governance and international cooperation.

The 2025 Dutch Independence Award is therefore more than a symbolic tribute. It is a call to rethink what independence means today. Not as an end in itself, but as a means to promote stability, resilience and self-determination in a complex world.

Because in the end, true independence is not the absence of dependence - but the presence of choices.

Click here for more information on the presentation of the Dutch Independence Award to Robert D. Kaplan on 25 June 2025.